Deal on buffer area adds pressure on UK parliament to allow British military involvement in Syria and raises questions about Kurdish peace process,

After several days of prevarication, US officials have confirmed the Obama administration’s agreement to Turkish demands to set up a coalition-protected “safe zone” inside northern Syria in return for permitting US aircraft to use Turkey’s military bases to attack Islamic State.

The safe zone will stretch for 68 miles along the Turkey-Syria border, from the town of Jarabulus to Marea, and will be about 40 miles deep, reaching to the outskirts of Aleppo, Syria’s second city. Under a deal agreed last week by Barack Obama and and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, US and coalition air strikes will attempt to clear the area of Isis fighters.

US officials said the still evolving plan envisaged occupation of the zone by “moderate” Syrian rebel forces including western-trained units from the Free Syrian Army, protected by coalition air cover. The area is largely beyond the control of Damascus, so the danger of clashes with Syrian regime forces or air defences is reduced. The Syrian military will in any case be told to keep out of the zone.

Erdoğan’s government has long been pushing for a buffer zone or no-fly zone inside Syria, similar to those imposed by the US, Britain and France over northern and southern Iraq in the 1990s, partly to create a safe haven for Syrian refugees. Until now the US has refused, fearing it could trigger clashes with forces loyal to the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and enrage his Iranian and Russian backers.

Washington is still resisting use of the term “no-fly zone”, preferring the more innocuous “safe zone”. But after initially ignoring Turkish media reports that a deal had been struck, US officials told the Washington Post and New York Times a protected area could soon be a reality.

Over the weekend, Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, said: “When areas in northern Syria are cleared of the [Isis] threat, the safe zones will be formed naturally. We have always defended safe zones and no-fly zones … People who have been displaced can be placed in those safe areas.”

US officials did not dispute the Turkish description and said American and coalition air cover would effectively operate around the clock while Isis targets were located, the Post reported.

The US-Turkey agreement on a safe zone will increase the pressure on Britain’s parliament and government to allow UK combat aircraft to go into action over Syria alongside the US, as they do in Iraq. David Cameron has already signalled willingness to fight Isis in Syria, a proposal he repeated on Monday.

Turkey hopes some of the two million Syrian refugees who have fled across the border may find safe haven in the new zone. But Erdoğan’s government is also anxious to prevent the area being taken over by Syrian Kurdish forces known as People’s Protection Units (YPG), if and when Isis is driven out.

Many Kurds seek an independent region in northern Syria, which they call Rojava (Western Kurdistan) – an aspiration which Ankara regards as a security threat. The YPG has made significant advances in recent months.

Western allies are worried about the consequences that recent Turkish air strikes on Kurdistan Workers party (PKK) bases in northern Iraq will have on the overall Kurdish peace process. US officials, however, are said to be more sympathetic to Ankara’s concerns about Syrian Kurd forces moving west and taking control of large sections of the border adjacent to Turkey.

Erdoğan used last week’s volte-face, when Turkey finally began targeting Isis after months of inaction, to initiate a simultaneous offensive against the PKK on the grounds that they are all terrorists. Turkey denies it is also targeting the Syrian Kurds’ Democratic Union party (PYD) and its armed wing, the YPG, despite a border shelling incident overnight in which YPG fighters were injured.

More than 800 alleged Isis sympathisers and Kurdish activists have been arrested inside Turkey. Kurdish politicians accuse Erdoğan of “setting the country on fire” as a prelude to calling a snap election, in a bid to reverse his party’s losses in last month’s polls.

This has led some analysts to suggest the US tacitly agreed to the new assault on the Kurds in return for Erdoğan’s cooperation on Isis, a claim that is impossible to prove. Ahmet Davutoğlu, Turkey’s prime minister, said at the weekend that Turkey would not send ground troops into Syria. The deal with the US has “changed the regional game”, he added.

“Now the question is whether [Turkey’s] priority is to join the western alliance in its struggle against Isis or target the PKK in Iraq and Kurdish political circles including the Peace and Democracy party (HDP) inside the country. The other question is whether Turkey brokered a deal with the US to have a free hand against the PKK,” said Hurriyet newspaper columnist Nuray Mert. “What is clearer is that the Turkish government considered using this policy change as a chance to suppress Kurds by including them as part of its ‘war against terror’.”

The growing crisis along the Turkish border has raised international alarm bells. Nato will discuss the situation on Tuesday, at Turkey’s request. After ignoring alliance concerns about Isis for almost a year, Ankara now wants its full backing and support.

The EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, told Çavuşoğlu that Turkey’s efforts to fight terrorism were welcome but the Kurdish peace process should be kept “alive and on track”. Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, delivered a similar message to Davutoğlu in a phone call on Sunday.

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, was also in touch with Erdoğan at the weekend. Moscow and Tehran are certain to resist any development that threatens their ally, Assad, and the regional power balance. From their perspective, it looks like the de facto territorial partition of Syria has begun.

source: the Guardian