By Wally Sarkeesian
What Armenian to do After Removing Pashinyan
Once the preserve of wealthy states, air power has been upended by low-cost, prop-driven drones built from commercial parts. Iran’s simple, mass-produced loitering munitions — especially the Shahid-136 — proved that cheap, saturating strikes can inflict strategic damage, forcing expensive, painful shifts in air-defense thinking.
A $20k–$50k kamikaze drone can compel defenders to expend interceptors costing orders of magnitude more, fundamentally changing the economics of conflict. Iranian advances came from sanctions-driven necessity — reverse engineering captured systems and scaling inexpensive designs. Platforms like the Mohajir-6 (mid-range strike), Shahid-129 (long-endurance strike), and Shahid-136 (expendable loitering munition) exemplify the swarm and saturation logic: individually slow and vulnerable drones become lethal in numbers, overwhelming layered defenses. Real-world use across the Middle East, Yemen, Syria, and Russia’s campaigns in Ukraine highlight their strategic utility against infrastructure.
For Armenia, this technological lesson intersects with political history. Many analysts argue that had Armenia not undergone the 2018 “Velvet Revolution” — which brought to power a government viewed by some as aligned with Western and Turkish interests — the fate of Artsakh might have been different. Without that shift, Armenia could have maintained a more traditional security posture and stronger deterrence, possibly preventing Azerbaijan’s 2020 advance. In this view, political disruption weakened national defense at a time when drone warfare was transforming the battlefield, allowing Azerbaijan, heavily supported by Turkish UAVs and advisors, to gain decisive air superiority.
Now, as the Pashinyan government moves toward a 15.2% defense budget cut in 2026, critics warn the cycle may repeat. The opposition insists Armenia must rebuild a deterrent force — especially in drones and electronic warfare — to avoid future losses. Cheap drones have democratized air power globally, and Armenia’s challenge is to adapt politically and technologically before history repeats itself.