It is undeniable that since 2020 the affairs of Azerbaijan are going “unprecedentedly” well. And as long as there are people at the helm of power in Armenia who perceive and represent defeat and defeat as an achievement, they will continue to be good. The Azerbaijani side enters and occupies new territories not only in Artsakh but also in Armenia.
With all these successes, official Azerbaijan is quite sensitive to many external realities and reacts to them quite nervously. And people become irritable mainly because of fear. Aliyev, along with his today’s successes and victories, is in obvious fear and anxiety. And what is the leader of the victorious country afraid of?
For example, the statement of Oleg Matveichev, a deputy of the Russian State Duma, can make the Azerbaijani side hysterical. And the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan immediately sent a long-winded note of protest, which specifically states: “Those statements aimed at destabilizing the situation in the region and attempts to provoke revanchist forces in the Armenian society to revive the conflict left in the past are unacceptable.” With this, Azerbaijan unintentionally shows its fear of Armenia’s prospect of “revenge”.
The Azerbaijani press has repeatedly expressed “concern” that there may be guerrilla wars in the “liberated” territories. Guerrilla wars of Armenians are also one of the fears of Azerbaijan and Aliyev. The dirty propaganda, provocations and threats against the European structure of Hay Dat and its leader Gaspar Karapetyan gained momentum again. They are also the work of Azerbaijan. And why does victorious Azerbaijan need to accuse Gaspar Karapetyan of diamond smuggling and other “secular” sins? It turns out that it should. Gaspar Karapetyan and the structure he leads are able to convey to the members of the European Parliament the reality of what is happening in Artsakh and the Berdzor corridor. And the European Parliament comes out with statements condemning Azerbaijan, demanding to open the corridor. The other day, Lucas Fourkas, head of the friendship group of the European Parliament with Armenia, visited Armenia. The delegation led by him visited the Syunik Marz, the beginning of the Lachin Corridor, where the Azerbaijani illegal checkpoint is located, met with the members of the ARF bureau, the mayor of Goris, exchanged ideas on the need for effective protection of Armenian interests in the European Union, and the need to hold urgent discussions on Armenian issues.
And, finally, the source of Aliyev’s main fears are the Armenian diaspora and the rapidly changing world. Diaspora has been like a piercing thorn in the throat of Turkey and Azerbaijan for years. Today, the fourth generation of the diaspora is growing and fighting, not only for the recognition of the genocide and slaughter of 1915, but also of 2020. Armenians all over the world are making noise, demonstrating, reminding and demanding. In a changing world, the diaspora is able to maintain its weight and influence.
Therefore, Aliyev, who today still feels like Alexander the Macedonian, is afraid that one day he will lose his victory and the “horse” of the Macedonian. The world and the region are changing very quickly, every day the region faces new challenges, different maps are being drawn “hanging in the air”. And those changes can suddenly turn against Azerbaijan and Turkey. Presidential elections are expected in Turkey on May 14. And if suddenly Erdogan is not elected, but someone is elected who will not continue to provide military aid to Azerbaijan or change the foreign policy line? What if Russia wins the war against Ukraine and starts dealing with our region? All these are issues that concern and worry Aliyev. So he’s in a hurry… in a big hurry.
After all, he has before his eyes the example of Armenia, when we did not secure our victory in the first war properly, as a result of which we lost it decades later. Maybe one day the wheel of history will turn back again…