A year after the end of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, the situation has changed and continues to change drastically. This is what Russian political scientist Andrey Areshev said during a conversation with Armenian News-NEWS.am today.
“This is mainly due to the fact that Armenia is no longer a foreign political entity as a result of its defeat. The second factor is the sharp growth of Turkey’s influence in the region. The third factor is the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh which is maintaining the new status quo in the medium-term. As far as the long-term prospect is concerned, nobody knows what will happen in Nagorno-Karabakh and what agreements Moscow and Baku will reach,” he stated.
According to him, all the potential concessions of Armenia’s leadership, including the deployment of a border and customs checkpoint on the Goris-Kapan motorway, incite the adversary’s intentions to receive much more by taking advantage of the situation created in Armenia.
“This may lead to more incidents that the Russian side will try to prohibit, but there is an understanding that there are different players in the region. Some compare Armenia with Syria, and this will lead to a situation that may explode. The other hotbed of tension is the section in Nagorno-Karabakh under the supervision of Russian peacekeepers where there may also be different kinds of incidents, including murders of peaceful civilians,” Areshev said.
The political scientist says the incumbent authorities of Armenia aren’t expressing a clear position on the so-called “Zangezur corridor” and are responding to the opposite proposals with consent. “So, Russia is compelled to deal with the communications in the South Caucasus. I don’t think circulating this topic favors Russia or Iran. However, Baku has a serious winning card that it will definitely use, that is, its intention to organize border and customs control in Lachin, if the issue of traffic through Syunik Province is delayed,” Areshev concluded.
Starting from midnight, the Azerbaijani side deployed customs checkpoints on the Goris-Kapan motorway.