The Azerbaijani side escalated, especially after Russia stated in a direct text that no corridor logic is envisaged in the context of the blockade. In other words, Russia announced that it had been playing with the Turks and the West for about a year, and now, instead of the promised corridor, it offers to be satisfied with the way controlled by several states. Naturally, this option is absolutely not acceptable for the Turks and the West, and they started attacking. The weakest point in this Russian anti-corridor scenario is Armenia because Russia has taken on several tasks at once, and they can be fulfilled only if Armenia is able to resist the provocations and aggression of Azerbaijan on its own.
To understand the complexity of this project, let’s first see what Russia was trying to do, which after the 44-day war deployed its peacekeepers in the conflict zone, which was considered by some experts as an adventure. Serious military strategists believed that Russia was not gaining any strategic advantage, but was in a vulnerable position. It is clear that what we have today is significantly different from what was envisaged by Lavrov’s plan, and anyone will have a question about what it meant for Russia to send peacekeepers to Artsakh without control over Shushi and without a border with Iran. However, the picture of what happened later was completed, it became clear that the hidden trophy of the 44-day war was the Zangezur corridor, which was planned to be opened in the post-war chaotic situation. Most likely the Russians had clear information that the West was going to stop the war in almost the same place, under the same conditions, so that by creating an imitation of negotiations, it would be possible to extort the corridor connecting the Turkish world from Armenia, and this was not only the end of Armenia So Russia went to the bank and they stopped the war by deploying their peacekeepers.
It is clear from the November 9 document that the Russians simply agreed to almost all the conditions set by the Turks, only to provide some legitimacy for the process. Probably, Russia had calculated that no matter what document is signed, in the future it will be possible to take everything in any direction. Russia’s main goal was to stay in the problem and first of all to exclude the “corridor” project, the rest could be corrected in the process. The revival of the Minsk Group, of course, was undesirable for Russia, so Russia played on Turkey’s ambition and agreed to the “3 + 3” program, according to which Russia and Turkey will play a dominant role in the region. This was also beneficial for Azerbaijan, but it could not but disturb Iran, Georgia, and Armenia. As a result, Iran, worried about the Russian-Turkish flirtation, entered the game and announced that will not allow any change in the borders of Armenia. Thus, Russia created two virtual alliances at once ․ In one he cooperates with Azerbaijan and Turkey, in the other with Iran, India, and Armenia. Russia, of course, imagines that this is a very vulnerable and tricky construction, but it thinks that the entrance to the West is firmly closed, and when the Turks realize that they are getting nothing, they will have to come to terms with it. The West will also have to come to terms with all this.If they do not get anything, they will have to put up with it. The West will also have to come to terms with all this.If they do not get anything, they will have to put up with it. The West will also have to come to terms with all this.
Of course, it is impossible to calculate everything, and Russia took a risk, putting the West in front of a difficult dilemma, to go to aggravations with unpredictable consequences or to come to terms with the situation? If everything went according to the Russian scenario, Russia would have a military presence in the territory of Azerbaijan, keeping in hand the unresolved Karabakh issue, which is a club on the head of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The existence of a corridor threatening Russia was also ruled out, and by deploying troops in Syunik, the Russians would gain control over the north-south road.
As we can see, Russia has started a game on a huge scale, and it remains for it to maintain a careful balance between all the players. Which is what they complain about in Armenia, Azerbaijan, sometimes in Turkey. And the West simply frowned because it did not get anything as a result of the 44-day war, and it turns out that it turned a blind eye to the movement of terrorists in vain, allowing its ally Turkey to take part in the war. The 44-day war, which NATO could have easily ruled out, brought Azerbaijan serious territorial gains, Turkey gained Azerbaijan as a whole, Israel even solved some problems, Russia was able to fortify itself at the crossroads of the Caucasus, and the West was left out because it could not seize treaties and corridors. roads, further negotiation processes. Of course, it participates in the process to some extent through Turkey, but Turkey is not so reliable.
Unfortunately, the obsession with destroying Russia, China, and Iran has led the civilized world to cooperate with terrorists, to destroy countries, to endanger the destinies of small nations, but, in fact, the stakes are so high that they do not shy away from anything just to achieve their goal. The West has obviously set itself the task of uniting the Turkish world and thus dealing a crushing blow to Russia, despite the fact that Turkey sometimes becomes uncontrollable and causes problems within NATO. There is a belief in the West that it does not matter how manageable Turkey is, if they find themselves under the gates of Russia, a clash will become inevitable. Americans like to repeat that sometimes good guys have to take drastic steps to punish bad guys, and this, in their opinion,It is one of those cases. They have convinced themselves that any method can be used to solve this problem, burning everything along the way and freeing the world from “evil empires.”
Unfortunately, the world of Armenia and Syunik are on that path, and this is probably the only reason why the West gave a carte blanche to Azerbaijan and Turkey. It was planned to seize the card of the Karabakh conflict from Russia through war and establish full control over the conflict zone, maintaining the independence of a small area from Artsakh and extorting from Armenia the corridor that would block Iran’s entry to Europe and ensure the unification of the Turkish world. However, Russia thwarted all the plans, but could not get a full advantage, and the Turks and the West decided to take a break, for the time being accepting the presence of the Russians. The West probably thought that the Russians should provide the necessary document base for the corridor, temporarily control that corridor, and later, through some provocations, We will drive them out of the region, and the corridor will remain in the hands of the West. But for all this, it is necessary that the term “corridor” be clearly emphasized in the documents, and all the noise arose when Russia insisted on the idea of unblocking the roads. In response, Turkey probably instructed Azerbaijan to go to provocation in the direction of Armenia, because the weakest point of this construction is Armenia.
The Armenian-Azerbaijani border clashes pose a big problem for Russia: it must either help Armenia and expel the Azeris, losing the mandate of a neutral peacekeeper, or the Russians must not interfere in the bloody clashes, thus Armenia will invite the Russians and they They will lose control of the situation. In both cases, we and Russia lose, and all this is very well understood in Azerbaijan, Turkey, and the West. Therefore, the calls to the West are just ridiculous, and it is foolish to think that they will rebuke the Turks. The best option for Armenia and Russia would be for us to be able to resist aggression on our own, but there is no need to talk about it, because Armenia is very weak at the moment. The thread was cut right where it was expected, And now Armenia is in hell and Russia is in a deadlock. The fake Russian-Turkish flirtations are also coming to a logical end: Turkey is openly supplying weapons to Ukraine, publishing strange maps and threatening, while Russia continues to pretend that it does not notice or hear anything. It is unfortunate that Russia can afford such games, but we can not.
We have to face the Turkish-Azerbaijani aggression alone, and this is the reason why the CP deputies made harsh statements against Russia. They were right: Russia must finally understand that the structure it has created has collapsed, it does not work, new solutions are needed very quickly. Armenia can no longer wait, we are simply exhausted, and the Russians must put an end to this situation very quickly. The stupid opinions from Russia that Armenia is obliged to fight to the end are just cheap manipulations, they know very well that Armenia has been fighting for 30 years instead of both itself and Russia. Russia has created a structure where Armenia is bleeding.
Maybe Russia can not find a way out of the situation, and maybe it is very busy with the situation near the Polish border, it does not matter, the important thing is that we can not pay endlessly for Russian Transcaucasian projects, no matter how much they coincide with our interests. Anti-Russian sentiments are growing in Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan’s government depends on hair, the rating of the NA opposition has been reduced to zero, it becomes meaningless for the people to follow the pro-Russian force when Russia does not help. All this can lead to terrible consequences, the situation in Armenia is explosive. Russia’s calculation did not work, the Turks were not afraid and went to escalation, now is the time for Russia to move.
We have given thousands of victims, the society is divided, politicians are cursing each other, we can not get out of this situation on our own, Russia must draw conclusions. It is impossible to resist the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem with empty words, we need very clear military support, and Russia has two options: either fully support its ally, as Turkey supports Azerbaijan, or step aside, allowing us to decide with whom we can get out of this hell.