The only message of the establishment of the Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor is that Russia and its army cannot be a guarantor of security. If they are unable to ensure the fulfillment of the obligations assumed two and a half years ago and the security of Artsakh Armenians,
how should they ensure the contractual obligation towards Armenia in case of external aggression? Russia no longer has enough authority to restrain Azerbaijan through negotiations, and it does not have the power and opportunity to restrain it with weapons either. If Azerbaijan closes Lachin Corridor today, it may open Zangezur Corridor tomorrow. In that case, Russia’s reaction may be the same. condemning statement and no concrete support. The consequence is one. Armenia needs new, more reliable security guarantors,
Azerbaijan and the foreign forces supporting it want to take advantage of the created situation.
Russia has found itself in a wall situation in Artsakh and Armenia. it would be an unacceptable luxury for him to start a new war against Azerbaijan in the conditions of the war against Ukraine. It is better to yield to Azerbaijan, turn a blind eye to its provocative actions, than to react harshly. Iran also started reacting harshly to Azerbaijan, but when there is no strength under that reaction, it is better not to say anything. Russia understands that if, following the example of Iran, it begins to toughen its rhetoric towards Azerbaijan, it will not only not lead to a solution to the problem, but, on the contrary, will lead Russia to a deeper dead end. Russia’s only option is to save face as much as possible in this situation and buy time, hoping that time will work in its favor. Azerbaijan and the forces behind it understand that now there is a real opportunity.
This scenario is also to the liking of the Armenian authorities. In any case, Pashinyan’s government is doing everything to sever relations with Russia, inflame anti-Russian public sentiment and, ultimately, free Armenia from Russia’s presence. According to some reports, Pashinyan has already instructed the representatives of the economic bloc of his government to calculate what economic consequences Armenia may face in the event of its withdrawal from the EAEU and joining the Western sanctions against Russia, which will lead to the severance of trade and economic ties with Russia. Studies show extremely bad consequences, but when such a decision is made, the possible consequences may not have a significant impact. Pashinyan can declare that joining the Western security system is more important.
On the one hand, Russia is resisting, not wanting to give up Artsakh and Armenia easily, on the other hand, it has no alternative. Russian political and public figures, who do not have enough independence and independence to talk about the fact that the current vulnerable state of Russia is to blame for losing Armenia, their last support in the South Caucasus, are trying to blame the RA authorities, the Armenian people and Armenia. They explain Russia’s inactivity with the existence of anti-Russian, pro-Western authorities in Armenia, they accuse the Armenian people of their inability to support the Syrian government and remove its power. One can think that if there was a strong pro-Russian government in Armenia now, Russia would declare war on Azerbaijan and destroy the Azerbaijani checkpoint with tanks. Just like in Armenia so people in Russia like to blame their weakness and mistakes on others. It’s easier and safer that way, it’s not customary to criticize one’s own government in Russia.
Day by day, Russians are becoming more and more convinced that their stay in Artsakh and Armenia is not only difficult, but also becoming outdated. The product that they offered to Armenia and the Armenian people until now – security – is now “expired”. They understand that at some point Armenia can unilaterally break the legal contractual relations with Russia, forcing them to leave here. And they’re going for it.