The fact of the mysterious ceasefire established on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border has been discussed in political and political science circles since yesterday.
After Nikol Pashinyan announced in the parliament that he is ready to sign a document with Azerbaijan, which brought thousands of impatient citizens to the center of the capital, a ceasefire was suddenly announced at the border.
Moreover, the ceasefire was observed the next day with minor violations. In particular, Secretary of the Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, said late in the evening on Public Radio that, thanks to the involvement of the international community, it was possible to reach an agreement to stop the fire. In fact, the Azerbaijani side remained faithful to the previous agreement, in the event that it violated the agreement reached on September 13 with the mediation of the Russian Federation. But there are doubts that there were no significant interventions, completely different factors caused the “demand” for a ceasefire.
Let’s remind that in the morning after the midnight attack on September 13, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement calling on the parties to refrain from further escalation of the situation, to show restraint and strictly observe the ceasefire, according to the agreements of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia on November 9, January 11, 2020. and the tripartite statements of November 26, 2021.
“We are in close contact with Baku and Yerevan. A call was received from the leadership of Armenia in accordance with the existing bilateral agreements and with a request to support the settlement of the situation through the CSTO. We expect that the agreement reached as a result of Russia’s mediation, on the establishment of a ceasefire on September 13, from 9:00 a.m. Moscow time (10:00 a.m. Russian time), will be fully implemented,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
However, even after the ceasefire was established, the situation on the border continued to be tense. This very fact caused various discussions and hypotheses on the subject of the ceasefire approved and maintained the day before, doubts were raised about the Pashinyan-Aliev agreement.
Tigran Abrahamyan, deputy of the “I have honor” faction, member of the National Defense Committee, says that the main task is to understand what happened in foreign policy, in the negotiations, is this a purely humanitarian ceasefire, as it is presented, or an opportunity? is to develop operations on the new front with a different intensity. “In reality, there can be several reasons for establishing a ceasefire, the primary one among them is the one that became the subject of discussions after the statements of the head of the ruling political force. The fact is that there is a political agreement, as a result of which Armenia has to implement some of the demands or key demands presented by Azerbaijan. And if Armenia has fulfilled some of the key demands presented by Azerbaijan, as a result of this, Azerbaijan declared a temporary cease-fire until the implementation of the presented demands. The second option is that it is possible that Azerbaijan is carrying out certain regroupings on the front and, due to this, took a temporary break. Naturally, other developments are not excluded, but I think that these two may be the main reasons for the ceasefire at the moment.”
The commander of the “Arabo” detachment, Manvel Yeghiazaryan, Manvel of Arabo, has no doubts that the war unleashed on September 13 is the result of the Pashinyan-Aliyev agreement, and when the army began to fulfill its mission of pushing back the enemy, and the people rose up, they both fell. “What is happening is so simple that it doesn’t take much effort to understand it. That attack, everything was premeditated. People have agreed, they said that they will sign, and before that the enemy had to break through our border by force in order to create a legitimate basis. But when the enemy failed, he could not break through our defense, if he signed now, they would say: you are a 100% traitor, what happened that you are signing, people are fighting. They wanted to turn the situation into an ominous situation, but the people thwarted their plans, that is the reason why they are holding back.”
There are also other versions, some circles do not consider it a coincidence that Armen Grigoryan, the Secretary of the Security Council, who is known for his connections with the West, announced the ceasefire, and this means that the West, realizing that Pashinyan’s power is in danger, and his departure is their it is not beneficial, nor is it beneficial for Azerbaijan, they decided to withdraw until the internal political processes calm down. By the way, yesterday, at the end of the day, Alen Simonyan publicly stated that the role of the US in the cease-fire issue was great. Another remarkable fact. they told us that the troops standing at the border were not informed about the ceasefire agreement, even those standing at the positions were surprised that the Azerbaijanis suddenly became silent by some miracle.