Turkish President Tayyip Erdo ։an has become more active. After the unrest in Kazakhstan, which some analysts described as the “burial of the Turkic world” and Russia’s resumption of the role of “watchdog” in that part of the post-Soviet space, the “restless” and “pause” of the Turkish president again shows signs of activism, trying at all costs. the image that he is a master of tactical diplomatic-political maneuvers. It has been known for a long time that Erdogan has been pushing this line for a long time. In the end, it was clear that, driven by the neo-Ottoman wind, he was trying to do his best to bring his country out of the second or third echelon of the “first division of big politics.”
Erdogan’s line is clear, he becomes active when other players have problems with any issue or unevenness and tries to enter the game by self-serving and thus trying to stay “on the water”. This was the situation when maneuvering between Russia and the United States. When Ankara has problems with Washington, it starts drifting towards Moscow, as if explaining to the Americans that there is no need to argue with Ankara, as it is possible that Ankara will become closer friends with the global power on the opposite side. When problems arise in relations with the Russians, he immediately remembers NATO and the United States and asks them for help, as happened during the recent clashes in Idlib. It is noteworthy that the Turkish expert community has even started talking, that this tactic has already exhausted itself because in the end both the US and Russia are guided by their own interests in the first place and do not pay much attention to Erdogan’s geopolitical ambitions, which are constantly thrown from one pole to another.
For example, it is still unclear to many American analysts what interests Putin had in deciding to support Erdogan’s “3 + 3” format of South Caucasus cooperation. Ankara’s mediation efforts in the Balkans, where American and European influences are strong, are also incomprehensible. Many describe this as an attempt to re-establish the “New Ottoman Empire”, but in reality, Turkey is just trying to strengthen its position both in relations with its neighbors and in more remote areas. The Polish Gazeta Polska Codziennie described Erdoանիan’s maneuver quite aptly, noting that this tactic is fully in line with Mozart’s scenario: first, the “Turkish national anthem” is sounded, then everything goes back and returns to its calm initial state. Something similar is probably to be expected now when Ankara shows signs of activism in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.
But there is a nuance here. This time, Erdoաննan decided to include his “little brother”, Ilham Aliyev, who had recently visited Kyiv. First, he announces that he will discuss the situation in Ukraine with Aliyev, then he already speaks about the fact that he will invite Putin and Zelensky to Ankara, so that, in simple vernacular language, “they will sit down and talk and settle their problems.” Aliyev does not seem to mind being involved in that game and, blinded by his “victory”, decided that he was already a participant in “big politics” and hurried to call the Kremlin and talk to the Russian president about the situation in Ukraine. What will be the end of all this, of course, is clear and understandable, which was already mentioned by the above-mentioned Polish periodical, citing Mozart’s scenario of the “Turkish anthem”, Because Moscow will definitely not allow Ankara to get involved in an issue that may be directly related to Crimea, which is already a “red line” for Russia, no matter how much Erdogan tries to “blur the water” by somehow getting involved in the Ukrainian crisis.