Pashinyan’s participation in Erdogan’s inauguration ceremony was aimed at protecting his power from Aliyev. Showing his loyalty and obedience to the new Turkish authorities, he wanted to get Erdogan’s support against possible Azerbaijani aggression.
No matter how much it is said that Pashinyan and his government are a puppet of the West, the fact is that now the question of Pashinyan staying in power is in the hands of Ilham Aliyev. At any moment, when Aliyev decides to launch another attack against Armenia and try to capture Syunik and Vayots Dzor, Pashinyan’s power will cease to exist. As much as Pashinyan claims that he managed to get the president of Azerbaijan to recognize the existing borders of Armenia, Aliyev, on the contrary, continues to insist that the borders of Armenia should be drawn in the way he wants, according to his ideas.
Moreover, he is not going to leave the issue of Armenia’s borders to some border demarcation or demarcation commission, which will decide which river or mountain the border passes through, who gets what, and whose troops should stand where. Aliyev is preparing for a new military aggression, as evidenced by the significant increase in the military budget. He will carry out the demarcation through the army, convinced that this is the most effective way. To implement his plans, Aliyev is waiting for a suitable geopolitical situation. is waiting for the Ukrainian counterattack, its positive course.
Yesterday, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine confirmed that the counter-offensive had begun. The units of the Ukrainian army went on the offensive in several directions, still with limited forces, possibly to check the weak points of the resistance of the Russian army. The Ukrainian army has a tactical success, but at the moment no one can say what course the counter-offensive will take, because Western analysts and military experts are sure that Russia has also accumulated large reserves and after pushing back the Ukrainian counter-offensive, it can attack. But these are just speculations. It is not excluded that the events will develop like last year’s summer and autumn, when the defense of the Russian army was broken within days, and the Ukrainian army liberated significant areas of Kharkiv and Kherson. Now the Ukrainian army has launched an attack on the territory of Russia itself, and if it succeeds here, even if it is limited, a collapse may occur in Russia. This scenario cannot be ruled out.
In the summer and autumn of last year, when the Ukrainian army was building on its success by liberating Ukrainian territories, on September 12, Azerbaijan went on the offensive along almost the entire line of contact and was able to register a significant success, capturing significant parts of Armenia. If the Ukrainian army is able to record success on the front once again, there is no doubt that the president of Azerbaijan will order a parallel attack, setting before his army a more ambitious task: to open a corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. Pashinyan cannot rule out such a possibility, especially since Aliyev has shown that he is determined to implement his plans.
What or who might hinder this plan? First of all, the Armenian army with organized resistance. Pashinyan realizes that the army will show heroic resistance, but he also understands that he has weakened the army so much, deprived it of skilled and experienced commanders, modern weapons and ammunition that he cannot rely on the army’s capabilities. In case of such a version of developments, you can’t even count on Russia. if Russia cannot defend its territory – Belgorod, Kursk marzes, it is unlikely to have troops and weapons to defend Syunik and Vayots Dzor.
Western countries. Pashinyan convinced the West that Armenia is an ally of the West, because it is guided by Western democratic values, in contrast to dictatorial Azerbaijan, and in the event of an attack by Azerbaijan, the West should do everything to prevent the defeat of Armenia, to protect Armenia, but it is weak, if not to say is a ridiculous argument. The West has a great influence on Azerbaijan and the authorities of that country, and in case of Azerbaijani aggression, it is possible that statements supporting Armenia will be made, but they will not be able to stop Azerbaijan. In that case, Azerbaijan will rather be guided by the instructions from Turkey. And Turkey will definitely approve of the Azerbaijani attack, because there cannot be a more suitable occasion to create a common border with Azerbaijan.
By accepting Erdogan’s invitation to participate in his inauguration ceremony, Pashinyan was swearing his loyalty to Turkey and to Erdogan himself, saying: consider that Armenia is yours, it is under your feet, what is the point of attacking Azerbaijan, in which case Aliyev can do anything from Armenia – to tear off a piece, but will lose the rest of the territory, where anti-Turkish, radical forces can come to power. Will Erdogan protect Pashinyan from Aliyev? of course no: Erdoğan understands very well that without Russia’s support, Armenia will end up in his own hands one way or another. With Pashinyan or without Pashinyan, what is the difference?